Hunches

Why Hunches MatterTeams get stuck when they wait for perfect data or leap straight into solutions. Both waste time. Hunches cut through by giving you a place to start. They are not answers. They are testable bets. They turn instincts, early signs, and experience into hypotheses tied to signals you can measure.Without hunches, teams drift toward generic metrics that miss what users really need. With hunches, you focus on what matters and move fast enough to keep momentum alive.What a Hunch IsA hunch is an informed guess. It is a shaped instinct about what might be true. It is the spark that moves you from wide-open ideation into focused exploration.Think of it as:“We believe there is something important here, and we are ready to test it.”A strong hunch is:Tied to a user problem or friction pointExpressed as a clear hypothesis you can prove or disproveLinked to a metric so results are visibleFalsifiable, meaning it could be wrong and that is the pointIdeationIdeation is the widest space, where creative exploration begins. It is open, messy, and unfiltered. Possibilities are still loose, but from this wide field, patterns begin to take shape. The first edges of clarity emerge throughhunches and questions.HunchA hunch is a shaped idea worth exploring. It is an informed guess drawn from experience, observation, or early signs. A hunch narrows wide-open ideation into something testable by suggesting what feels meaningful.Think of it as: “We believe there is something important here.”QuestionsQuestions sharpen hunches into measurable direction. They expose what needs to be tested, clarify assumptions, and guide teams toward signals that matter.Think of it as: “How can we prove this is true?”The OverlapWhen a hunch meets a question, ideation becomes focused. Assumptions and opportunities turn into testable paths. The team moves from “we believe” to “let’s find out.” This overlap is where evidence begins to form and where signals start to emerge.How to Create a HunchUse these steps to form actionable hunches for your design initiative:STEP 1Start with ContextTry linking your hunch to a business goal, design principle, or moment in the user journey. Forming a hunch together helps uncover different perspectives. Don’t rush through it—discuss what each person sees as the real problem and where the opportunity lies.What are you designing? Who is it for?What do you already know from research or experience?For example:‘We believe simplifying the onboarding screen will improve activation by reducing cognitive load.’”Use hunches to be intentional about where you focus and why. Every decision you explore should help you learn something new or confirm what you believe to be true.Remember, your first hunch won’t be your last.What you learn may shape a new hunch, and that’s how your design gets smarter over time. Make hunch-building a shared activity. Use standups, sketch sessions, or research reviews to align on what the team wants to learn next.STEP 2Capture Initial AssumptionsHunches don’t come out of nowhere—they’re shaped by what you’ve already seen, heard, and explored. Here are some helpful ways to spark hunches in the early stages of design:What do you think users want or struggle with?What behaviors or actions do you believe are critical?Here are some techniquesSurvey Data-Ask users directly for quick feedback on what’s working.Ideation Sketching-Draw ideas together as a team to turn quick thoughts into early concepts.Empathy Mapping-Understand what users think, feel, say, and do to uncover hidden needs or frustrations.Customer Journey Framework-Spot pain points and opportunities as users move through each step of an experience.Stakeholder Interviews-Learn what internal teams care about or expect—helping you shape useful, aligned ideas.Customer Feedback-Look at reviews, support tickets, or survey responses to see where people struggle or succeed.Data Analytics-Use analytics to notice patterns in behavior—like drop-offs, clicks, or skipped actions.Competitive Analysis-See how others solve similar problems, and spot gaps or opportunities in your own experience.Expert Audit-Use the experience of design, product, or research leads to highlight areas worth testing.STEP 3Spot OpportunitiesFocus your hunch on the problem, not the solution. A strong hunch starts with user pain, not just a new feature idea.What feels clunky or confusing in the experience?Are there unmet user needs or points of frustration?Is there potential to add value or reduce effort?A strong hunch helps you resist the urge to build more. It sharpens your focus to explore the changes that matter most.STEP 4Form Your HunchA hunch is your early guess—an informed instinct about what users need or where things could be better. It’s based on patterns you’ve seen, behaviors you’ve observed, or feedback you’ve gathered.Start by writing a simple belief statement:We believe users need___so they can___.Then, turn that hunch into a more structured design hypothesis using this format:We believe that[this change]for[this group]will[have this impact]because[supporting reason].Example:Hunch:We believe users need fewer steps so they can complete signup more easily.Design Hypothesis:We believe that removing two steps from the signup flow for new users will increase completion rates because analytics show drop-offs after step three.A strong hypothesis:Is focused on solving a user problemMakes a clear predictionCan be tested and measuredIs falsifiable (it could be wrong, and that’s okay)Example:Weak:“We believe users like shorter forms.”Stronger:“We believe removing two steps from the signup form for first-time users will increase completion rates because users drop off at step 3.”STEP 5Translate Into QuestionsTurn your hunch into questions that guide what you’ll test or learn. Good questions focus on user behavior or outcomes, not just opinions.Ask:What behavior would confirm or disprove this hunch?What would need to happen for this idea to be true?How will we know if the change made a difference?Examples:Do users complete the signup when fewer steps are shown?Does adding auto-save reduce form abandonment?Are users more likely to return if we show progress indicators?To measure what’s happening, link your hunch to a UX metric—like completion rate, task time, or drop-off rate. That way, you can see what’s working and what’s not.After testing, take time to reflect.Did the results support or challenge your thinking?What did you learn?What should you keep, change, or explore next?Remember, test results aren’t final answers—they’re signals. Use them to guide your next step, not settle the whole story.Benefits of Using HunchesHelps you focus-Hunches help you figure out what to work on first. They give you a clear place to start based on what seems most important or promising.Avoid building the wrong thing– Hunches help teams test early ideas before investing in full solutions, reducing the risk of wasted time and effort.Everyone’s on the same page-When the team shares their thoughts early on, it’s easier to agree on what to explore. You don’t need to convince others later—everyone’s already included from the start.Less documentation-Since everyone is involved, there’s no need for long documents to explain your thinking. The team already understands the direction.Builds better features-Because hunches are based on early signs of what users need, you’re more likely to create features that are actually helpful and solve real problems.Keeps you learning-Even after you launch something, hunches can lead to new ideas and improvements. You keep testing and learning instead of guessing what might work.How Glare HelpsIn early design stages, teams often face uncertainty and lack clear direction. Waiting for complete data can slow progress, while moving ahead without focus can lead to wasted time and poor results.Hunches offer a way forward—they’re educated guesses based on instinct, experience, or early insights. While not final answers, hunches help teams narrow in on what matters, shape initial ideas, and guide testing.Hunches work best when they’re part of your team’s regular rhythm—something you revisit in retros, research reviews, and iteration planning.For example, a team might suspect users abandon a signup flow because it’s too long—this guess becomes the basis for exploring improvements.Glare helps teams turn these hunches into focused questions they can test. Instead of waiting for full research, teams use hunches to identify opportunities, prioritize what to explore, and move quickly. When backed by data, hunches become a bridge between creative thinking and user-centered decisions.Hunches help teams stay flexible, learn faster, and design with greater impact—even when the path isn’t fully clear.AI PromptThis prompt helps you turn a team instinct into a falsifiable hypothesis you can actually test.Start with an observation, instinct, or early pattern you've noticed in your product or research. It guides you to:Write a belief statement that names the user need behind the instinctPromote it into a hypothesis using the "We believe that..." templatePressure test it for falsifiability so it can be confirmed or disprovenTie it to a UX metric so results become a signal rather than an opinionYou'll end with a well-formed hunch ready to move into the Questioning step.Use this when your team has an instinct about what's wrong but hasn't found a way to test it yet.AI SkillsThe Hunches skill file teaches your AI the full belief and hypothesis formation process so it can help you shape and strengthen any instinct before it moves into questioning.Load it when you need to go deeper on spark techniques, rewriting weak hunches, or building the connection between a friction point and a testable metric. It gives your AI:The five spark techniques for surfacing instincts from existing evidenceThe belief and hypothesis templates with weak-to-strong rewriting examplesThe falsifiability pressure test with the questions that expose an opinion masquerading as a hunchThe metric-linking step that turns a hypothesis into a comparable signalDownload the skill file below to use the full Hunches framework with your AI assistant.